2026-01-03 09:00

As the NBA season barrels towards its thrilling conclusion, the question on every fan's mind is a simple one: who will win the NBA Finals? It’s a puzzle that, much like the ones I recently encountered in a particularly engaging video game, requires a careful balance of observation, analysis, and sometimes, a bit of educated guesswork. The game’s puzzles were mostly rewarding, teaching you to pay close attention to your environment and inventory, but a couple were so obtuse they brought progress to a grinding halt. That’s a feeling I suspect many sports analysts have when trying to pin down a champion in a league as dynamic as the NBA. The odds and predictions we pore over are our inventory, the teams' performances our environment, and putting it all together to find the champion is the ultimate intellectual challenge. Sometimes the answer feels laughably easy, and other times, it’s frustratingly opaque. So, let’s dive into the latest NBA winner odds and see if we can solve this championship puzzle without resorting to just trying every combination until something clicks.

Currently, the sportsbooks paint a pretty clear picture of a two-team race, though with some intriguing dark horses lurking. Based on the latest aggregated odds from major books, the Boston Celtics are the overwhelming favorites, sitting at approximately -150. That implies a perceived 60% chance of lifting the Larry O'Brien Trophy. Right behind them, the Denver Nuggets hover around +300, giving them about a 25% implied probability. The gap is significant but not insurmountable. My personal take? The Celtics' odds feel a bit inflated, a product of their dominant regular season where they posted a league-best 64-18 record. They have the most complete roster, top-tier defense, and the scoring prowess of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. It’s a puzzle where the pieces seem to fit perfectly on paper. But as we know, the playoffs are a different beast. Their path has been relatively smooth so far, but that can create a false sense of security. I’ve seen this movie before—a team cruising, then meeting a gritty, battle-tested opponent that knows how to exploit even the smallest weakness. The Celtics' puzzle might look simple, but one or two unexpected moves from an opponent could introduce a frustrating level of complexity.

Then you have the defending champions, the Denver Nuggets. To me, analyzing them is like solving one of those fulfilling puzzles that reward deep understanding. On the surface, you see Nikola Jokić, the best player in the world, and think, "Okay, the solution is just give him the ball." But that’s the laughably easy part. The real beauty is in how he makes every piece around him—Murray, Gordon, Porter Jr.—function at their absolute highest level. They are the epitome of a team where the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. Their odds at +300 offer tremendous value. They’ve been here, they’ve solved the ultimate puzzle already, and they have the singular talent who can dismantle any defensive scheme thrown at him. If the Celtics are the flashy, obvious solution, the Nuggets are the elegant, proven algorithm. My bias is showing here: I’m leaning towards Denver’s experience and that Jokić factor. In a seven-game series, having the most unstoppable force is often the master key that unlocks everything.

But what about the rest of the field? Teams like the Minnesota Timberwolves, with their historically good defense, or the Dallas Mavericks, with the explosive Luka Dončić-Kyrie Irving duo, are listed further back at around +800 and +1200 respectively. These are the wild cards, the puzzles that are so obtuse they could either be solved quickly or halt everyone's progress entirely. The Timberwolves, for instance, have the defensive pieces to confuse and shut down both Boston and Denver. They’re the kind of team that, if their offense clicks at the right time, could make the favorites look silly. It’s that "mileage may vary" scenario the game review talked about. One analyst’s impossible challenge is another’s clear path to victory. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Minnesota makes a deep, deep run, even if I’m not ready to put my money on them just yet. Dallas, on the other hand, feels more volatile. They can score on anyone, but their defense can be a puzzle they themselves can’t solve. They’re the high-risk, high-reward pick.

So, who will win? The analytical part of me looks at the Celtics' depth, home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, and their hunger after years of near-misses. It’s the logical pick. But the part of me that loves the artistry and unpredictability of sports looks at Denver. I keep coming back to the idea of the "obtuse" puzzle. The Celtics' journey might be full of puzzles that are intellectually fulfilling but straightforward for a team of their caliber. Denver’s path, however, might require them to solve a few of those truly frustrating, series-altering puzzles. The difference is, they have Jokić, who seems to have the solution manual. The odds say Boston. My gut, influenced by watching this Nuggets core operate under pressure, says Denver. If these two teams do meet in the Finals, as many predict, I believe it will be a classic that goes at least six, probably seven games. And in that final, ultimate puzzle, I’m giving the slightest edge to the team with the best solver in the world. The value lies with the Nuggets at +300. The safe bet is on Boston. But since when was solving a great puzzle about playing it safe? The journey to the answer is the whole point.